The memo still hasn’t made it to everyone about the systemic function of the #TeslaTakedown protests. I still keep getting well-meaning quesitons like the one below from @tymwol.
The purpose is •not• just to register symbolic discontent. The purpose is •not• just to take individual action that directly harms Musk.
The purpose is to tank demand for Tesla’s product, and thus tank their stock price. This is Musk’s biggest vulnerability, Smaug’s exposed belly.
I’ll work that reasoning out a bit:
- Musk’s power depends entirely on wealth. Not genius; he’s a nincompoop. Wealth.
- A large portion of Musk’s wealth is tied up in Tesla stock. A •very• large portion.
- His wealth is further dependent on investors believing that he alone is uniquely capable of leading companies into being “unicorns,” i.e. companies with massive future growth potential. His cult of personality is why Tesla’s stock is so wildly overvalued.
- And yes, Tesla stock is overvalued wrt fundamentals, to an absurd degree. Even after losing ~40% of its value since its peak, it’s •still• overvalued. It has a lot of room to fall.
So, what do we do about that?
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The proximate primary goal of #TeslaTakedown is to reduce demand for Tesla’s product. Lower demand → lower price → lower margins → lower profit. Anything that increases their financial liabilities is a bonus (e.g. overload of used vehicles from broken leases that they can’t sell), but reducing demand is the name of the game.
If Tesla becomes an unprofitable company, and a company that simply cannot become profitable as long as it has the Musk millstone around its neck, then (1) the stock tanks and (2) having Musk in charge becomes a liability.
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How do we reduce demand?
- Make the Tesla brand SOCIALLY TOXIC: shameful, embarrassing, cringy, un-sexy, nauseating. Buying one should •feel bad•. Make people a little sick to their stomach when they come in for that test drive.
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- Make the Tesla brand a PRACTICAL LIABILITY: maybe you don’t feel bad about buying one, but…people vandalize them, and so many people are getting rid of them that the resale value is going to be crap for a long time. Owning one is a headache, and you’re going to lose a lot of money on it.
(I get a lot of replies to the effect of “How does it hurt Musk to get rid of a car you already bought??” Get your systems thinking hat on! A supply glut in the used market both creates downward price pressure on new cars •and• changes people’s financial expectations when buying a new one.)
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- Make the Tesla brand FRIGHTENING: They surveil you. They trap you inside. They burn people alive on a regular basis. They’re extremely vulnerable to hacking, even more than other modern cars with OTA software updates. One of these days, some hacker is going to make every Tesla in the country drive through its garage door…or worse. Driving a Tesla puts you in danger.
(This isn’t just logical; it’s visceral. Bombard people with images of Teslas vandalized, smashed, on fire. Make it a Pavlovian reaction: Tesla = danger, chaos, destruction.)
5/
Quick checklist for #TeslaTakedown action:
- Does it make Teslas socially toxic?
- Does it make Tesla a practical liability?
- Does it make Teslas feel dangerous?
Any or all = good.
Do not underestimate the power of brand death over consumers and investors. The brand is already associated with fascism. Amplify that. Judo it. Take them town.
Search for a local event here: https://www.teslatakedown.com
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@inthehands thank you for the explanation of the functional and systems impact of these actions. Love the checklist!
@inthehands Also, who wants to buy a brand new Tesla when the brand's reputation is so rubbish that you get made fun of at parties, and might even get your windows smashed in, or the whole car torched?
Perception is everything.
@sindarina @inthehands The ironic thing is that most Tesla torching type attacks are probably going to turn out to be insurance fraud by dealers needing to get out.
@inthehands Tesla stock is deeply undercut. Its price is entirely premised on future dominance, which is at this point basically guaranteed to not occur. BYD ate Tesla's breakfast, and divvied up Tesla's lunch with friends, and BYD and friends are now hungrily sniffing as dinnertime approaches.
The EV ramp-up is in full force and Tesla has now lost the race.
@datum Yes, agreed: “premised on future dominance” is the only explanation for that P/E ratio, and in addition to everything that you said:
- Self-driving seems to be hitting a wall of problems, appears poised to underdeliver for the foreseeable future
- And Tesla’s FSD no longer looks poised to win whatever limited success •is• there to win in that space
- Musk’s “I am a supergenius” con is crumbling
- The brand once had cachet, now is toxic
- And then there’s those tariffs
Where’s the future dominance story now? Sounds increasingly like a fairy tale.
@inthehands @datum Self driving never made sense. The number of humans with control delusions about risk (ie whose tolerance to risk when not in control is vastly lower than when in control) is just too high for it to work. Humans have a deeply wired in need to be in control. We already have to make buses and trains incredibly safe compared to cars because of this.
@etchedpixels @inthehands Yes! Right! Buses, trains, trams are already much safer than cars. In Vancouver there are "self driving" high speed short distance rail lines. Those save hundreds+ of traffic accidents a year. But they absolutely depend on infrastructure - the lines are raised or buried or fenced off.
"Self driving" shouldn't be a car in a field, no matter what Deere wants to sell.
"Self driving" needs guardrails.
Guardrails - the actual nonmetaphorical ones - are there because HUMAN drivers are also fallible.
It's just a different set of supportive infrastructure needed.
I have no horse in the race, but the civic planning aspect of it has been explained to me by people smarter and better informed than me, and this was my takeaway. I'm just a layperson so it's also possible I've been a rube or misunderstood.
@datum @inthehands One of the things that makes cars hard is there isn't a standardised fail response. On an isolated self drive (or even driver assist) railway system the correct answer to any kind of failure is "brake hard". On the roads the correct answer is complicated which is one reason we end up with lots of dead human.
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@inthehands Teslas also have the highest FATAL accident rate of all vehicles. https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a62919131/tesla-has-highest-fatal-accident-rate-of-all-auto-brands-study/
@nomdeb @inthehands it's going to be illegal to report on this story in 3, 2, 1...